February 2007 RETURN TO HOME PAGE FEEDBACK

Well, finally! For the first time in six holiday seasons, people stopped falling all over themselves to offer mansionistic prices for 100-year-old cottages in Noe Valley.

Rampant appreciation, bidding wars, and snap decisions--the name of the game since 2000--took a holiday during the last two months of 2006, according to sales figures compiled by Zephyr Real Estate for the Noe Valley Voice.

The data shows that 19 single-family homes closed escrow in Noe Valley during November and December. That represents a decline of more than 40 percent from the 32 homes that were sold during the same two-month period in 2005. Condominium sales also fell sharply, tumbling 30 percent. In November and December of 2006, there were a total of 16 deals, as compared with 23 condo sales during the same period the previous year.

In addition, recent buyers on average paid 99 to 100 percent of the seller's asking price and took about a month and a half to close escrow. By contrast, at the peak of the boom market of the early 2000s, buyers were offering premiums of 10 to 15 percent, and deals were sealed in three weeks or less.

However, the recent lull may not signal a downward trend. Randall Kostick, Zephyr's general sales manager, says the November-December retreat is typical of a normal market, something we haven't seen in a long while. "This is the first true seasonal wintertime in five years...it's the way it used to be," Kostick says. Until this year, the annual December slowdown "took a hiatus while the market went crazy for six years."

Though economists forecast that the Bay Area will experience a generally stagnant housing market in 2007, Kostick thinks a "permanent retreat" in affluent Noe Valley is unlikely. Why? Because two bubble-busters--higher mortgage interest rates and a rise in unemployment--haven't occurred, he says.

"We have people with jobs, and interest rates are good, and the real estate market is healthy," Kostick says. "We're expecting good things in 2007." Just one month into the new year, he adds, Noe Valley homes are again starting to attract multiple offers.

Retreat or not, Noe Valley remains an expensive place to live. A four-bedroom, 31/2-bath home in the 3900 block of 25th Street, between Sanchez and Church streets, was the priciest home sold in November. Buyers paid $2.9 million for the 4,000-square-foot residence.

December's costliest detached home was a $2.1 million dwelling in the 500 block of 30th Street, between Noe and Castro streets. It has four bedrooms, 31/2 baths, and 2,750 square feet of living space.

The premier condo sale during November was a three-bedroom, three-bath unit in the 100 block of Chattanooga Street, between 22nd and 23rd streets. The 2,000-square-foot property sold for $1.5 million.

In December, a five-bedroom, three-bath condo sold for $1.7 million in the 4000 block of 26th Street, between Noe and Sanchez streets. The unit had 2,280 square feet of space.

Noe Valley Home Sales*

	Total Sales	Low Price ($)	High Price ($)	Average Price ($)	Average Days on Market	Sale Price as % of List Price
Single-family homes
December 2006	8	$1,000,000	$2,125,000	$1,477,813	48	99%
November 2006	11	$870,000	$2,900,000	$1,495,455	33	100%
December 2005	15	$675,000	$2,145,000	$1,203,533	37	106%
November 2005	17	$860,000	$1,465,000	$1,145,370	28	109%
Condominiums
December 2006	6	$397,000	$1,688,000	$889,250	54	102%
November 2006	10	$695,000	$1,510,000	$1,051,000	38	102%
December 2005	14	$575,000	$1,510,000	$890,321	42	105%
November 2005	9	$392,000	$1,350,000	$949,944	20	112%
2 to 4 unit buildings
December 2006	4	$1,075,000	$1,775,000	$1,333,750	53	99%
November 2006	9	$925,000	$2,685,000	$1,414,731	65	99%
December 2005	4	$937,500	$1,716,888	$1,233,597	56	106%
November 2005	4	$1,200,000	$1,806,000	$1,499,262	22	102%
5+ unit buildings
December 2006	0	-	-	-	-	-
November 2006	1	$1,565,000	$1,565,000	$1,565,000	82	95%
December 2005	1	$6,160,000	$6,160,000	$6,160,000	99	104%
November 2005	0	-	-	-	-	-

*Sales figures include all Noe Valley home sales completed during the month. In this survey, Noe Valley is defined as the area bordered by Grand View, 22nd, Guerrero, and 30th streets. The Voice thanks Zephyr Real Estate (www.zephyrsf.com) for supplying the data.

Noe Valley Rents**

Type of Unit	Number in Sample	Range of Rents, January 2007	Average Rent, January 2007	Average Rent, One Year Ago
Studio	0	-	-	$1078
1 bedroom	16	$1100-$2750	$1740	$1575
2 bedrooms	32	$1900-$3800	$2491	$2399
3 bedrooms	8	$2600-$3650	$3274	$2963
4+ bedrooms	6	$5200-$12500	$7034	$5150

**These rent averages are based on a sample of 62 Noe Valley rental listings appearing on www.craigslist.com December 26, 2006 - January 15, 2007.