September 2005 RETURN TO HOME PAGE FEEDBACK

If owners of household moving companies seemed especially chipper this summer, perhaps even displaying flashes of irrational exuberance, it was for good reason: they had a job bonanza in Noe Valley.

Their giddy mood was a spillover from a red-hot real estate market in which an astonishing 39 single-family homes closed escrow in June and July. The transactions surpassed last year's impressive June-July total of 36 sales and were considerably higher than in the same time period in 2003, when 26 sales were recorded.

Buyers were so intent on getting a home in Noe Valley that they paid 15 percent more than the sellers' asking price. The willingness to pay such hefty premiums shows that house shoppers were not buying any bubble talk--at least for now.

"When we have 39 properties sold, at 15 percent above asking, that tells us the demand is still up there," says Randall Kostick, sales manager for Zephyr Real Estate on 24th Street. "We'll know the market is cooling a bit when we see the sales price going down" to the asking price.

There were other indications that people were willing to give the shirts off their backs for Noe Valley real estate. The average sales price for a detached home was more than $1.2 million, markedly higher than a year ago. And buyers snapped up homes as soon as a "For Sale" sign was posted, closing escrow in about three weeks.

Meanwhile, the b word continues to be bandied about by both the media and the real estate industry, says Kostick. Everyone is still wondering "Is there a bubble or is there not a bubble?" he says. "I've read everything from 'We've just begun' to 'We're about to burst.'"

Kostick says any bubble would likely hit the housing speculators first. Those are the people who buy and fix houses, then quickly sell them during a period of rapid appreciation. He says the speculators "may be out of business soon," because despite the robust June and July activity, the market is "calming a little bit."

"If you don't buy your home to make a quick buck, you're in fine shape," Kostick says. "But if you bought to make a quick buck, the quick buck isn't there anymore."

Big-Ticket Purchases on Vicksburg

The most expensive detached home in July sold for nearly $2.3 million. The house, located in the first block of Vicksburg Street, has four bedrooms and 31/2 baths. June's most expensive sale involved one of the few properties that didn't exceed the $1,995,000 asking price, according to Kostick. The five-bedroom, three-bath home, also in the first block of Vicksburg Street, sold for just under $1.9 million.

Condominium buyers also were active during the summer. They closed escrow on 22 condos in June and July, four more than in the same period a year ago. Competition was also keen among condo buyers, who paid 8 percent above the asking price in June and 14 percent more in July.

Condos, once considered the less expensive alternative to detached homes, also sold in the neighborhood of $1 million. Kostick notes that many Noe Valley condos are flats "that are every bit as large as homes."

A three-bedroom, three-bath condo, located in the 1300 block of Noe Street, sold in July for just over $1.2 million. The priciest condo in June sold for more than $1.3 million. The four-bedroom, four-bath condo is located in the 900 block of Sanchez Street.

Noe Valley Home Sales*

	Total Sales	Low Price ($)	High Price ($)	Average Price ($)	Average Days on Market	Sale Price as % of List Price
Single-family homes
July 2005	24	$750,000	$2,279,000	$1,258,037	21	115%
June 2005	15	$805,000	$1,862,500	$1,214,767	24	114%
May 2005	15	$907,000	$2,245,000	$1,297,553	29	113%
July 2004	14	$722,000	$1,250,000	$984,500	34	110%
June 2004	22	$740,000	$1,985,000	$1,092,773	24	110%
Condominiums
July 2005	7	$775,000	$1,210,500	$1,030,500	38	108%
June 2005	15	$712,500	$1,342,000	$925,367	32	114%
May 2005	9	$525,000	$1,114,000	$914,110	21	116%
July 2004	7	$595,000	$1,115,000	$800,300	25	109%
June 2004	10	$575,000	$950,000	$862,331	20	110%
2 to 4 unit buildings
July 2005	4	$1,190,000	$2,279,000	$1,706,000	45	108%
June 2005	3	$985,000	$1,436,093	$1,256,364	44	107%
May 2005	7	$1,215,000	$1,750,000	$1,431,943	36	104%
July 2004	6	$770,000	$1,600,000	$1,160,000	48	110%
June 2004	9	$755,000	$1,285,000	$1,079,000	27	110%
5+ unit buildings
July 2005	2	$1,700,000	$1,900,000	$1,800,000	57	107%
June 2005	1	$1,975,000	$1,975,000	$1,975,000	50	104%
May 2005	2	$1,550,000	$1,890,000	$1,682,500	39	102%
July 2004	0	-	-	-	-	-
June 2004	1	$1,625,000	$1,625,000	$1,625,000	53	102%

*Information provided to the Noe Valley Voice courtesy of Zephyr Real Estate (www.zephyr-re.com) and based on all Noe Valley home sales (escrow closings) recorded during the month. "Noe Valley" in this survey is defined as the area bordered by Grand View, 22nd, Guerrero, and 30th streets.

Noe Valley Rents**

Type of Unit	Number in Sample	Range of Rents, August 2005	Average Rent, August 2005	Average Rent, June 2005
Studio	4	$995-$1250	$1149	$1099
1 bedroom	20	$1250-$2100	$1588	$1549
2 bedrooms	23	$1699-$3600	$2359	$2104
3 bedrooms	7	$2495-$3975	$3274	$2650
4 bedrooms	1	$6200-$6200	$6200	$6500

**These rent averages are based on a sample of 55 Noe Valley rental listings appearing on www.craigslist.com on August 12-17, 2005. The previous sample of 52 listings was collected June 13-16.