Noe Valley Voice September 2011
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Census 2010: Toddlers Climb in Last Decade

And So Do Seniors

By Tim Innes

No wonder there’s a gaggle of strollers parked outside the Noe Valley Library for the Tuesday Toddler Tales. According to 2010 census data, the number of children under 5 in Noe Valley rose almost 50 percent during the previous decade.    Photo by Pamela Gerard 


Stroller gridlock on 24th Street sidewalks. Overflow crowds at the Toddler Tales programs at the Noe Valley/ Sally Brunn Library on Tuesday mornings. Youngsters swarming the Noe Courts play area on any sunny day. Parents scrambling for a coveted spot in the Alvarado Elementary School class of 2017.

You’d think Noe Valley was experiencing a baby boom. And you’d be right.

Nearly 1,300 preschoolers call the neighborhood home, according to figures recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The census counted 1,296 children under 5 in 2010, up 49.1 percent from the 869 recorded a decade earlier.

There were more 5- to 9-year-olds, too—770, up 18.3 percent from the 651 counted in 2000. And while the number of 10- to 14-year-olds slipped by 14 percent, from 623 to 536, those ages 15 to 19 grew by 7.1 percent from 451 in 2000 to 483 in 2010.

Some 6.1 percent of Noe Valleyans were under 5, compared with 4.4 percent across San Francisco.

At the same time, the neighborhood grew grayer. The number of people 55 to 59 rose 30.6 percent, those 60 to 64 surged 78.9 percent, and those 65 to 69 jumped 40.5 percent. Still, only 10.4 percent of neighborhood residents were 65 or older, compared with 13.6 percent citywide.

Meanwhile, the number of young adults dropped sharply. There were 18 percent fewer 20- to 24-year-olds, 24.7 percent fewer 25- to 29-year-olds, 20.4 percent fewer 30- to 34-year-olds and 6.6 percent fewer 35- to 39-year-olds, the decennial head count found.

Influx of Asian Residents

One thing that changed little during the decade was the racial complexion of the neighborhood, which for census purposes stretches from Grand View Avenue, Portola Drive, and Diamond Heights Boulevard on the west to Dolores Street and San Jose Avenue on the east, and from 21st Street on the north to 30th on the south.

Out of 21,302 people counted in Noe Valley’s six census tracts, 16,373, or 76.9 percent, were white, versus 16,805, or 78.2 percent, in 2000. In contrast, fewer than half of all San Franciscans—48.5 percent, down from 49.7 percent in 2000—were white.

The neighborhood’s Asian/Pacific Islander population, meantime, jumped to 2,560, or 12 percent, in 2010 from 2,065, or 9.6 percent a decade earlier. Citywide, Asians’ share of the population grew to 33.7 percent, from 31.3 percent in 2000.

The increase in Noe Valley reflected a citywide trend, as Asians spread beyond traditional enclaves such as Chinatown and the Richmond and Sunset districts. For example, Asians have displaced African Americans as the dominant racial group in the southeast corner of the city, which includes the Bayview, Hunters Point, and Visitacion Valley neighborhoods.

Even as Asians arrived in Noe Valley, many African Americans and a small number of Latinos departed the neighborhood. Blacks numbered 430, or 2 percent, down from 538, or 2.5 percent, a decade earlier, while people describing themselves as Hispanic totaled 2,509, or 11.8 percent, compared with 2,643, or 12.3 percent, in 2000.

Citywide, the African American population shrank by nearly a quarter, to 6.1 percent of the total, down from 7.8 percent in 2000. The drop, which was even greater in Oakland, reflected a flight to outlying areas of Solano and Contra Costa counties and beyond.

Meanwhile, the city’s Hispanic population grew by 11 percent and made up 15.1 percent of the total, up from 14.1 percent a decade earlier.

Rounding out the neighborhood’s residents were those of more than one race, whose numbers rose to 1,151, or 5.4 percent, from 937, or 4.4 percent, in 2000; those checking “other,” whose ranks declined to 690, or 3.2 percent, from 1,045, or 4.9 percent; and American Indians and Alaska natives, who numbered 98, or 0.5 percent, compared with 87, or 0.4 percent, in 2000. Those percentages paralleled citywide figures.

School Age a Dividing Line

But Noe Valley’s population fell for the second decade in a row, slipping 0.8 percent even as the city’s was expanding by 3.7 percent, to 805,235—the most in its history.

The sharp decline in preteens and teens—the neighborhood had 1,520 kids under 10 in 2000 but only 1,019 between 10 and 19 a decade later—begs the question: Where have all the children gone? Are families pulling up stakes as their children near school age, as the Chronicle suggested in a June 19 story headlined, “They learn to walk, then flee”? And have skyrocketing home prices—the average jumped from $808,181 in July 2001 to $1,170,792 this July—deterred families with children from settling in Noe Valley?

That was the case for former 26th Street renters Darren and Marni Kottle, who moved to Piedmont last summer with their daughters Lindsay, now 6, and Naomi, now 4.

“I grew up in the city—the Hyde Park area of Chicago—and I never dreamed I’d be living in the suburbs,” said Marni, 33, a freelance writer and publicist. “It’s easier [to live in the city] when your kids are young. But schools matter more when your children are older. We didn’t want to take a chance with the lottery and end up being assigned to a school halfway across town.” The couple concluded that the expense of sending two kids to private schools on top of mortgage payments was too high. So they purchased a 3,300-square-foot home in the affluent East Bay enclave, known for its excellent public schools and recreation programs. “Piedmont is very family-oriented,” Marni said.

Noe Valley children’s librarian Catherine Starr often plays to a packed house at the library’s weekly story time. At this gathering, kids and moms resorted to sitting on the floor.    Photo by Pamela Gerard 

Parents Who Stay

Dr. Marta Kosinski, who lives in Noe Valley with her software engineer husband, James Ruppert, and their three sons, said she’s seen many families like the Kottles in her pediatric practice at Mt. Zion.

“Parents are put off by the school application process in San Francisco,” said Kosinski, 47, who’s an associate clinical professor of pediatrics at UCSF.

The couple’s oldest son, Benjamin, was already attending Rooftop Elementary School when they bought their home on Douglass Street nine years ago. He was followed there by brothers Alex, 14, and Daniel, 11, who is now a sixth-grader at the Twin Peaks school. Benjamin, 15, just began his second year at Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory, while Alex is a freshman at Lowell High School.

“We’ve been pretty happy with the schools,’’ said Kosinski, who believes some public schools’ poor reputations are misplaced. “It’s a matter of perception,” she said. “Once people get to know a school, they’re generally happy with it.”

Kosinski said that she and Ruppert, 49, had considered moving to the suburbs but had ruled that out. “In case of an earthquake, we didn’t want to be at work on one side of the bridge while our boys were on the other.”

One Noe Valleyan all too familiar with school assignment challenges is Dr. Elizabeth Gould, who applied four times before finally getting her daughter into Alvarado School. Stella, 8, began third grade at the neighborhood school last month after attending Daniel Webster Elementary School on Potrero Hill for three years.

Although Gould, 51, said she was happy with Webster’s Spanish-language immersion program and even served as president of the PTA, she preferred to have Stella at Alvarado, which is just three blocks from their Douglass Street home. And while Stella “had a rough first week” in her new school, Gould is confident that she’ll quickly adjust to her new surroundings and classmates.

Gould’s other child, 14-year-old Noah, is a freshman at Lowell. He previously attended Clarendon Elementary School and James Lick Middle School.

Gould, who grew up on the Peninsula, said she would rather live in San Francisco even if it meant a long commute to her medical practice in Palo Alto and struggles over school assignments.

“I like living here,” she said, touting the city’s diversity and cultural amenities. “And I’m happy with the schools—and even happier I won’t have to go through this for at least a few more years.”

 

Keeping Track of Our Tracts

Analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data reveals that each of Noe Valley’s six census tracts, or subdivisions, had a slightly different character in 2010.

* Tract 216, in the southwest corner of Noe Valley, was the most diverse, with whites accounting for only 63.5 percent of residents. Tract 216 also had the highest percentages of Asian and African American residents, the highest percentage of seniors, and the highest percentage of homeowners.

* Tract 212, in the northwest corner, was the least racially diverse, with whites comprising 82.7 percent of residents. Tract 212 also had the lowest percentage of children under 5 and highest percentage of same-sex couples.

* Tract 213, between 24th and Cesar Chavez streets and west of Castro Street, had the highest concentration of preschool children. It also was one of only two tracts—the other was Tract 211, in the northeast corner of the neighborhood—to experience population growth from 2000 to 2010.

* Tract 215, in the southeast corner adjacent to the Mission District, had the highest percentage of Latinos, 19.2 percent, though that was down from 22.8 percent a decade earlier. The tract was also the most populous, with 5,096 residents, more than double that of Tract 213, which had just 2,474 people.

* Tract 214, between 24th and Cesar Chavez streets and east of Castro, had the highest percentage of people ages 25 to 44—47.8 percent, no doubt explaining why Silicon Valley coaches stop there. It also had the lowest percentage of seniors, 8.5 percent.

—Tim Innes



Census 2010

Noe Valley

Total Population

2010

 

2000

% Change

Noe Valley residents

21,302

 

21,477

–0.8%

 

Race and Ethnicity

2010

% Total

2000

% Total

White

16,373

76.9

16,805

78.2

Black or African American

430

2.0

538

2.5

American Indian or Alaska Native

98

0.5

87

0.4

Asian or Pacific Islander

2,560

12.0

2,065

9.6

Some other race

690

3.2

1,045

4.9

Two or more races

1,151

5.4

937

4.4

Total Race

21,302

100.0

21,477

100.0

Hispanic origin/Latino (of any race)

2,509

11.8

2,643

12.3


SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/

 

 

San Francisco

Total Population

2010

 

2000

% Change

San Francisco residents

805,235

 

776,731

+3.7%

 

 

 

 

 

Race and Ethnicity

2010

% Total

2000

% Total

White

390,387

48.5

385,728

49.7

Black or African American

48,870

6.1

60,515

7.8

American Indian or Alaska Native

4,024

0.5

3,458

0.4

Asian or Pacific Islander

271,274

33.7

243,409

31.3

Some other race

53,021

6.6

50,368

6.5

Two or more races

37,659

4.7

33,255

4.3

Total Race

805,235

100.0

776,733

100.0

Hispanic origin/Latino (of any race)

121,774

15.1

109,504

14.1

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/